It’s 11:45 am, November 12th. A year from now it will be old news: the identity
of our 44th President. Over the next year you will hear one prognosticator after another
weigh in on who the winner is going to be. I’d like to be the first to say I KNOW who the
next president is going to be! The winner is going to be a Democrat, pure and simple. It
doesn’t make a difference whether it’s Hillary or Obama or a chimpanzee; if a monkey
wins the Democratic nomination, the monkey will win the presidency. The race for the
White House isn’t between the Democratic and Republican nominees; the race for our
next president elect lies with the Democratic Party. The outcome can be easily figured
out not by weighing the pros and cons of the candidates but by understanding how we
Democrats and Republicans think and vote depending on our boredom, the state of our
economy, and our security (likeability is the tiebreaker). Using a very simple formula
applied to any election (I went all the way back to when Franklin D. Roosevelt hogged
the presidency from 1932 through his passing in 1945) I found tea leaves that could
easily be read by anyone if they knew what to look for! Here’s what I found:
1. No country or person is perfect. We have our good days and our bad but we do get
bored very quickly. This is especially true of presidents. If a particular party has had the
White House for eight years, we tend to want a change in political parties. If the current
political party has only been in the White House for four years, we tend to be forgiving
and give the guy another chance to finish all the stuff he started but didn’t get around to
2. We have an inclination to vote in vice-presidents because we tend to believe if he
spent 4-8 years a heartbeat away from the presidency, how bad a job could he do if he got
a promotion? We tend to like presidents and vice presidents who run for election with
the exception of political parties that have been running things for the previous two
terms. In that case, the vice-president has no home court advantage but it is not a
disadvantage either if he develops his own identity.
3. We are a country of consumers. When something gets in the way of our consumption
(high oil prices, recession, an unstable US dollar, poor retail sales, housing market, etc)
we aren’t happy! Not only that, we will blame the party that is in office and vote for
change. If the economy is going smooth and robust, we have a tendency to give a point
to the party in office.
4. War may be hell, but that doesn’t seem to stop us from getting involved in them even
when it’s best to mind our own business. That said, we still are a country that likes
fireworks until they stop being fun or become costly. Most of us will attend a 4th of July
extravaganza but few of us would like to underwrite one. As a country we are likely to
stick with our president in time of crisis and war unless we are given a get-out-of-war-
free card if a president steps down after two terms. When that happens we are apt to give a
point to the non-controlling party so we can get our troops out of harms way. If no war
has occurred in many years we tend to get antsy and want a Republican in office in order
to see the fireworks again.
Presidential Elections 2008!
In my research (using regression analysis) I found out that any party that could dominate
these four categories wins the election! And the times when the Democrats and
Republicans split the four questions it came down to a fifth, tie-breaking question, ‘who
is more likeable?’ This likeability question tends to work as a good tie-breaker. Heck,
it’s what won Bush the election in 2000 over Gore!
Enough is enough; I’ve kept you guys waiting long enough. Let’s answer the question,
‘who is going to be president come 2008?’ using the following questionnaire.
1)Has the current political party been in office for one or two terms? (If one term,
award a point to the current political party. If two terms, award a point to the non-
Answer: The current White House has been held for two terms by the Republicans so the
Democrats get 1 point.
(Dems 1; Repubs 0)
2)Is the Vice-President or President of the current party running?
(If yes, give current party 1 point; possession is 9/10ths of the law)
Answer: no current President or Vice-President is running. Point goes to the Democrats.
(Dems 2; Repubs 0)
3)What is the current economic state of the economy?
(If robust, give 1 point to the current party; if in recession or headed that way, give one
point to the other party)
Answer: Economy is in a downturn heading for a possible recession. Point for Democrats.
(Dems 3; Repubs 0)
4)Are we at war?
(If yes, give point to current party if the president is running. We don’t like to let our
enemy know we don’t have faith in our leader. Assign point to non-controlling party if
president is not running for re-election (Remember our get-out-of-war-free card?) and if
we haven’t been in a major conflict in the last 10 years that lasted at least one year, then
assign a point to the Republican Party.)
Answer: At war, president not running, point goes to the Democrat!
The Democrats skunk the Republicans 4-0! The likeability question doesn’t even come
Our next president is going to be a Democrat! It’s going to be D-Day!
Talk to you next time!
‘… ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.’
John F. Kennedy